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Monetary Policy Under Behavioral Expectations: An Empirical Validation of the Heuristic Switching Model
Bolshakov, Sergey ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Kučera, Tomáš (referee)
This work takes one of the most prominent behavioral New-Keynesian models from the shelf and estimates it via the simulated method of moments. The model exhibits a remarkably good ft to the auto- and cross-covariance pro- fles of the euro area macroeconomic time series, especially compared to the standard rational expectations model. This result corroborates the claim that central banks which implement strict infation targeting are better of reacting to the output gap, on top of infation. JEL Classifcation E52, E70, D84, C53 Keywords Behavioral macroeconomics, heterogeneous ex- pectations, New-Keynesian model, Heuristic Switching Model, simulated method of moments Title Monetary Policy Under Behavioral Expecta- tions: An Empirical Validation of the Heuristic Switching Model
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Analysis of a Behavioral New Keynesian Model
Křížková, Šárka ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
The thesis focuses on the analysis of a Behavioral New Keynesian DSGE model. In particular, various specifications of the model are collected from the existing literature and their combinations are simulated. The specifications include heuristics for forecasting output gap, sets of estimated or calibrated parameters and model structures. The resulting simulated output and inflation gap series are compared with the macroeconomic stylized facts and real world data from the US and Euro area based on their distributional characteristics and autocorrelation structures. In addition, a comparison of various simulated model specifications is performed based on the level of correlation between fractions of agents following a specific heuristic and the resulting output and inflation gap values. The distributional characteristics of the US output gap seem to be matched the best by the specifications with unbiased and extrapolative output gap heuristics generating series with higher levels of variance and kurtosis. Contrarily, the Euro output gap is best matched by specifications with optimistic, pessimistic and unbi- ased heuristics producing series with lower levels of variance and kurtosis. Second, the autocorrelation structure of the simulated series tends to mirror the stylized facts as opposed to the...
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